CO2 Migration along Faults in CCS Projects: Field Validation and Stochastic Modeling of Fault Properties

A proper assessment of CO2 migration along and across faults is a key requirement for site selection, injection management, and design of a monitoring, mitigation, and verification (MMV) program. As part of this project, we have developed numerical capabilities aimed at addressing this technical challenge. The capabilities include (i) a novel algorithm to determine fault permeability and its distribution on two- and three-dimensional faults based on local stratigraphy and fault throw (PREDICT), (ii) a coupled reservoir-geomechanical modeling approach to simulate CO2 injection and migration along faults, and (iii) the application of this capability to case studies in offshore sedimentary formations. In this continuing collaboration, we are capitalizing on these forward modeling capabilities and tools to achieve two goals: (1) validate the PREDICT model with datasets of fault transmissibility in lightly-lithified siliciclastic clay-sand sequences; and (2) develop quantitative tools for end-to-end uncertainty quantification of CO2 storage security in realistic geologic settings. We anticipate that the outcomes of this project will be key for site selection, injection operations, monitoring design and, of particular importance, influence regulators and public acceptance.