Model Uncertainty in a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: Stochastic versus Multiphysics Representations


Title

Model Uncertainty in a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: Stochastic versus Multiphysics Representations

Publication Type
Journal Article
Year of Publication
2011
Journal
Monthly Weather Review
Volume
139
Issue
6
Pagination
1972 – 1995
Date Published
Jan-06-2011
Publication Language
eng
Citation Key
2916
ISSN
0027-0644
Abstract

A multiphysics and a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme are employed to represent model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Both model-error schemes lead to significant improvements over the control ensemble system that is simply a downscaled global ensemble forecast with the same physics for each ensemble member. The improvements are evident in verification against both observations and analyses, but different in some details. Overall the stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme outperforms the multiphysics scheme, except near the surface. Best results are obtained when both schemes are used simultaneously, indicating that the model error can best be captured by a combination of multiple schemes.

Short Title
Mon. Wea. Rev.